Small changes in demand can trigger much larger inefficiencies throughout the supply chain, but here’s how you can avoid the bullwhip effect through excess solutions.
One of the more colorful descriptions of supply chain volatility, the “bullwhip effect,” as described by Stanford Professor Hau L. Lee, explains why a supply chain can experience wild swings in order volumes even though consumers buy at a relatively constant rate.
The bullwhip effect starts when small changes in demand trigger larger changes in retailers’ wholesale orders. It’s much like the cracking of a whip that sets off even bigger swings in manufacturers’ demand for the materials.
Stockpiling is a logical response to easing the uncertainties of the bullwhip effect, but it can also create inefficiencies. Smart strategies to combat the bullwhip effect require a focus on streamlining your supply chain. For the electronic components supply chain, there are several ways that you can avoid the bullwhip effect through excess solutions.
Take detailed stock of your inventory
Understanding what you have is the first step to combating the bullwhip effect. Creating an inventory database not only lets you track what you have on hand, but also your upcoming purchasing needs. Depending on your inventory, creating an end-of-life schedule could also provide insights into when you will need to source components to stay ahead of purchases around obsolescence. Knowing your inventory means taking control of what purchasing events are on the horizon, but also when to vent your excess strategically.
Consistently re-evaluate your safety inventory — and avoid the bullwhip effect through excess solutions
If you’ve taken a stockpiling approach to combat swings in demand, then you might have accumulated a significant amount of safety stock. When safety inventory moves into stockpiling territory, it’s time to reevaluate. We’ve written more in-depth about safety stock strategies, but to summarize, it’s important to take an aggressive stance to assess and move your excess security stock to avoid the pitfalls of holding on too long.
Evaluate your purchasing strategies
Rethinking your purchasing strategies can refresh your approach and help avoid the bullwhip effect through excess solutions. A custom strategy could include lot purchases or line-item purchases tailored to meet your specific needs.
Consignment is another option to create more flexibility in your supply chain. Consignment allows you to make purchases while storing your materials off-site, which eases storage constraints and boosts your security if you are working with a trusted consignment partner.
Shifting more frequent orders could help tame the bullwhip effect as well. While a just-in-time strategy might create margins that are too thin, more frequent ordering could reduce the amount of uncertainty that you are facing without resulting in stockpiling or coming up short.
Reducing your supply chain to a single trusted supplier can also support the streamlining you need to avoid the bullwhip effect. Inefficiencies can result from managing to many variables from handling multiple suppliers. By streamlining to one trusted supplier, you could eliminate administrative headaches and more easily evaluate your purchasing.
Improve your forecasts
Supply chain strategy is central to combating the bullwhip effect. Mixing in a new style of forecasting with your go-to approach can offer a refreshed perspective that allows for new insights.
For example, pairing up your qualitative forecasting with quantitative forecasting data from outside your organization could balance your forecasting by adding strategic insights to past sales data from the broader market. When you take into factors like seasonality and trends in demand along with broader historic data from a trusted partner, you’re adding fresh intelligence to your approach.
To summarize: Small changes in demand can trigger much larger inefficiencies throughout the supply chain, but you can avoid the bullwhip effect through excess solutions.
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